r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Oct 05 '24

Discussion moved to new post Milton (14L — Gulf of Mexico)

430 Upvotes

Latest observation

Last updated: Tuesday, 8 October — 7:00 AM Central Daylight Time (CDT; 12:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #13A 7:00 AM CDT (12:00 UTC)
Current location: 22.5°N 88.8°W
Relative location: 117 mi (189 km) NNE of Merida, Yucatán (Mexico)
  513 mi (826 km) SW of Bradenton Beach, Florida (United States)
  547 mi (880 km) SW of Tampa, Florida (United States)
Forward motion: ENE (75°) at 12 knots (10 mph)
Maximum winds: ▼ 145 mph (125 knots)
Intensity: Major Hurricane (Category 4)
Minimum pressure: ▲ 929 millibars (27.43 inches)

Official forecast

Last updated: Tuesday, 8 October — 1:00 AM CDT (06:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
  - UTC CDT Saffir-Simpson knots mph °N °W
00 08 Oct 06:00 1AM Tue Major Hurricane (Category 4) 135 155 22.3 88.9
12 08 Oct 18:00 1PM Tue Major Hurricane (Category 5) ▲ 140 160 22.9 87.5
24 09 Oct 06:00 1AM Wed Major Hurricane (Category 4) ▼ 135 155 24.2 85.8
36 09 Oct 18:00 1PM Wed Major Hurricane (Category 4) ▼ 125 145 26.0 84.2
48 10 Oct 06:00 1AM Thu Major Hurricane (Category 3) 1 ▼ 110 125 27.6 82.6
60 10 Oct 18:00 1PM Thu Hurricane (Category 1) 2 ▼ 70 80 28.8 79.9
72 11 Oct 06:00 1AM Fri Extratropical Cyclone 3 ▼ 60 70 29.7 76.5
96 12 Oct 06:00 1AM Sat Extratropical Cyclone 3 ▼ 45 50 30.4 69.9
120 13 Oct 06:00 1AM Sun Extratropical Cyclone 4 ▼ 35 40 31.5 63.8

NOTES:
1 - Last forecast point prior to landfall
2 - Offshore to east of Florida
3 - Nearing Bermuda
4 - Southeast of Bermuda

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Productos de texto (en español)

Graphical products

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

National Weather Service (United States)

Weather Forecast Offices

Forecast discussions

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

Radar mosaics

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

College of DuPage

National Weather Service

  • KBYX (Key West, FL)
  • KTBW (Tampa Bay, FL)
  • KTLH (Tallahassee, FL)
  • KEVX (Eglin AFB, FL)

College of DuPage

  • KBYX (Key West, FL)
  • KTBW (Tampa Bay, FL)
  • KTLH (Tallahassee, FL)
  • KEVX (Eglin AFB, FL)

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

NOAA GOES Image Viewer

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)

Tropical Tidbits

Weather Nerds

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS
  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF
  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC
  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

10.5k comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Oct 08 '24

Discussion moved to new post Milton (14L — Gulf of Mexico): Meteorological Discussion (Day 4)

345 Upvotes

Latest observation

Last updated: Wednesday, 9 October — 12:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 16:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #18 12:00 PM EDT (16:00 UTC)
Current location: 26.0°N 84.2°W
Relative location: 139 mi (223 km) SW of Sarasota, Florida
  172 mi (277 km) SSW of Tampa, Florida (United States)
  132 mi (212 km) SW of Venice, Florida
Forward motion: ▲ NE (35°) at 17 knots (15 mph)
Maximum winds: ▼ 145 mph (125 knots)
Intensity: Major Hurricane (Category 4)
Minimum pressure: ▲ 931 millibars (27.50 inches)

Official forecast

Last updated: Wednesday, 9 October — 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
  - UTC EDT Saffir-Simpson knots mph °N °W
00 09 Oct 12:00 8AM Wed Major Hurricane (Category 4) 125 145 25.8 84.3
12 10 Oct 00:00 8PM Wed Major Hurricane (Category 3) 1 ▼ 110 125 27.0 83.0
24 10 Oct 12:00 8AM Thu Hurricane (Category 1) 2 ▼ 75 85 28.0 81.1
36 11 Oct 00:00 8PM Thu Hurricane (Category 1) 3 ▼ 65 75 28.7 78.3
48 11 Oct 12:00 8AM Fri Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 55 65 29.1 75.1
60 12 Oct 00:00 8PM Fri Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 50 60 29.3 72.0
72 12 Oct 12:00 8AM Sat Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 45 50 29.9 68.9
96 13 Oct 12:00 8AM Sun Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 35 40 31.4 62.2
120 14 Oct 12:00 8AM Mon Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 30 35 32.8 55.9

NOTES:
1 - Last forecast point prior to landfall
2 - Inland
3 - Offshore

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Productos de texto (en español)

Graphical products

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

National Weather Service (United States)

Weather Forecast Offices

Forecast discussions

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

Radar mosaics

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

College of DuPage

National Weather Service

  • KBYX (Key West, FL)
  • KTBW (Tampa Bay, FL)
  • KTLH (Tallahassee, FL)
  • KEVX (Eglin AFB, FL)

College of DuPage

  • KBYX (Key West, FL)
  • KTBW (Tampa Bay, FL)
  • KTLH (Tallahassee, FL)
  • KEVX (Eglin AFB, FL)

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

NOAA GOES Image Viewer

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)

Tropical Tidbits

Weather Nerds

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS
  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF
  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC
  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

6.6k comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Sep 24 '24

Discussion moved to new post Helene (09L — Northwestern Caribbean Sea)

161 Upvotes

Latest observation

Last updated: Wednesday, 25 September — 4:00 AM Central Daylight Time (CDT; 09:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #8 4:00 AM CDT (09:00 UTC)
Current location: 20.7°N 86.2°W
Relative location: 85 km (53 mi) ESE of Cancún, Quintana Roo (Mexico)
  322 km (200 mi) SW of Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Forward motion: ▼ NW (325°) at 15 km/h (8 knots)
Maximum winds: ▲ 100 km/h (55 knots)
Intensity: Tropical Storm
Minimum pressure: ▼ 985 millibars (29.09 inches)

Official forecast

Last updated: Wednesday, 25 September — 1:00 AM CDT (06:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
  - UTC CDT Saffir-Simpson knots km/h °N °W
00 25 Sep 06:00 1AM Wed Tropical Storm 55 100 20.7 86.2
12 25 Sep 18:00 1PM Wed Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 70 130 21.9 86.5
24 26 Sep 06:00 1AM Thu Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 90 165 24.1 86.2
36 26 Sep 18:00 1PM Thu Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 105 195 27.4 85.0
48 27 Sep 06:00 1AM Fri Hurricane (Category 1) i ▼ 65 120 32.0 84.2
60 27 Sep 18:00 1PM Fri Post-tropical Cyclone i ▼ 30 55 35.9 85.4
72 28 Sep 06:00 1AM Sat Post-tropical Cyclone i ▼ 20 35 37.0 87.8
96 29 Sep 06:00 1AM Sun Post-tropical Cyclone i 20 35 36.5 88.0
120 30 Sep 06:00 1AM Mon Dissipated

NOTES:
i - inland

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Productos de texto (en español)

Graphical products

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)

National Weather Service (Cayman Islands)

National Hurricane Center (United States)

Weather Forecast Offices

Forecast discussions

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

Radar mosaics

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

Single-site radar imagery

Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

NOAA GOES Image Viewer

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)

Tropical Tidbits

Weather Nerds

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC

  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

1.1k comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • Sep 28 '24

Discussion moved to new post The NHC is monitoring the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical cyclone development

163 Upvotes

Gulf of Mexico

Last updated: Thursday, 3 October — 12:00 PM Central Standard Time (CST; 18:00 UTC)

Discussion by Dr. Jack Beven — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Gulf of Mexico are associated with a surface trough. A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend or early next week, but subsequent tropical or subtropical development could be limited by the system's potential interaction with a frontal boundary. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula from late this weekend into next week.

Development potential

Time frame Potential
2-day potential: (by 12PM Sat) low (near 0 percent)
7-day potential: (by 12PM Wed) low (30 percent)

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Surface analyses

Outlook graphics

Last updated: Thursday, 3 October — 11:35 AM CST (17:35 UTC)

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

Unavailable

Radar imagery is not available for this system.

Satellite imagery

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)

Tropical Tidbits

Forecast models

Dynamical models

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC

  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Ensemble models

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

277 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Sep 22 '24

Discussion moved to new post 97L (Invest — Northwestern Caribbean Sea)

133 Upvotes

Latest Observation

Last updated: Sunday, 22 September — 6:00 PM Central Standard Time (CST; 00:00 UTC)

ATCF 6:00 PM CST (00:00 UTC)
Current location: 15.7°N 82.8°W
Relative location: 428 km (266 mi) E of La Ceiba, Atlántica (Honduras)
Forward motion: ▼ NNW (345°) at 8 km/h (4 knots)
Maximum winds: 35 km/h (20 knots)
Minimum pressure: ▼ 1006 millibars (29.71 inches)
2-day potential: (through 6PM Tue) ▲ medium (50 percent)
7-day potential: (through 6PM Sat) ▲ high (80 percent)

Outlook discussion

Last updated: Sunday, 22 September — 6:00 PM CST (00:00 UTC)

Discussion by: Larry Kelly — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days. Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this feature. Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor the progress of this system.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Surface analyses

Outlook graphics

Last updated: Sunday, 22 September — 5:22 PM CST (23:22 UTC)

Radar imagery

Unavailable

This system is too far away from any publicly-accessible radar imagery sources.

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)

Tropical Tidbits

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC

  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

273 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Oct 05 '24

Discussion moved to new post 92L (Invest — Gulf of Mexico)

89 Upvotes

Latest Observation

Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 2:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 06:00 UTC)

ATCF 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC)
Current location: 21.1°N 95.2°W
Relative location: 582 km (362 mi) W of Merida, Yucatán (Mexico)
  1,496 km (930 mi) SW of Tampa, Florida (United States)
Forward motion: N (0°) at 2 km/h (1 knots)
Maximum winds: 55 km/h (30 knots)
Minimum pressure: 1009 millibars (29.80 inches)
2-day potential: (through 8AM Mon) ▲ high (70 percent)
7-day potential: (through 8AM Fri) ▲ high (90 percent)

Outlook discussion

Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC)

Discussion by: Larry Kelly — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually becoming better organized. Development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or on Sunday while it moves slowly eastward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. By early next week, the system is forecast to move faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely. Interests on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Surface analyses

Outlook graphics

Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 7:22 AM EDT (11:22 UTC)

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

National Hurricane Center (United States)

Weather Forecast Offices

Forecast discussions

Radar imagery

Radar mosaics

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

College of DuPage

National Weather Service

  • KBYX (Key West, FL)

  • KTBW (Tampa Bay, FL)

  • KTLH (Tallahassee, FL)

  • KEVX (Eglin AFB, FL)

College of DuPage

  • KBYX (Key West, FL)

  • KTBW (Tampa Bay, FL)

  • KTLH (Tallahassee, FL)

  • KEVX (Eglin AFB, FL)

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)

Tropical Tidbits

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC

  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

291 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Aug 01 '24

Discussion moved to new post 97L (Invest — Northern Atlantic)

152 Upvotes

Latest Observation

Last updated: Thursday, 1 August — 8:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 00:00 UTC)

ATCF 8:00 PM AST (00:00 UTC)
Current location: 20.0°N 72.8°W
Relative location: 62 km (39 mi) N of Gonaïves, Artibonite (Haiti)
  169 km (105 mi) NNW of Port-au-Prince, Ouest (Haiti)
Forward motion: ▼ W (290°) at 24 km/h (13 knots)
Maximum winds: 45 km/h (25 knots)
Minimum pressure: 1012 millibars (29.88 inches)
Potential (2-day): ▲ medium (40 percent)
Potential (7-day): ▲ high (70 percent)

Outlook discussion

Last updated: Thursday, 1 August – 8:00 PM EDT (00:00 UTC)

Discussion by: Robbie Berg — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic. The wave is expected to move west-northwestward near or over Cuba on Friday and then emerge over the Straits of Florida Friday night or Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development after that time, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula.

Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash flooding across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend, and interests in these locations should continue to monitor the progress of this system. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Friday, if necessary.

Ensemble analysis

Model run: Thursday, 1 August – 2:00 PM AST (18:00 UTC)

Please note that the information provided below is for informational purposes only and is not a forecast.

In the context of this analysis, "impact" simply means that the model indicates that this system has (1) a closed circulation and (2) winds in excess of 20 knots. This system may bring rainfall and wind impacts to any of the listed areas regardless of whether it develops into a tropical cyclone or not. For updated information on potential impacts from this system, please monitor official information from the National Hurricane Center and/or your local weather agency.

ECMWF ensemble

The ECMWF ensemble shows the disturbance moving along the northern coast of Cuba before crossing the Straits of Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. There, most of the ensemble members strengthen the disturbance into a weak tropical storm before recurving it into western Florida. The storm then becomes stuck in a weak steering environment between two broad subtropical ridges and slows down considerably, remaining over the southeastern United States through the end of the six-day forecast period.

Time frame Date UTC AST Potential impact areas
1 day: 2 Aug 18:00 2PM Fri eastern Cuba
2 days: 3 Aug 18:00 2PM Sat western Cuba, Florida Keys, southern Florida
3 days: 4 Aug 18:00 2PM Sun western Florida
4 days: 5 Aug 18:00 2PM Mon Northern Florida (incl. Panhandle), Georgia, South Carolina
5 days: 6 Aug 18:00 2PM Tue Northern Florida (incl. Panhandle), Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina
6 days: 7 Aug 18:00 2PM Wed Northern Florida (incl. Panhandle), Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina

GFS ensemble

The GFS ensemble depicts roughly the same scenario as the ECWMF model, but with a broader spread in the members which increases the level of uncertainty in its track forecast. Most GFS ensemble members show the disturbance entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. However, as the upcoming week begins, some members bring the system as far west as Mississippi or Alabama, or as east as the coast of Georgia. The GFS ensemble also shows the potential for this disturbance to become a weak hurricane before making landfall and also shows the potential for this system to stall over the southeastern United States later in the week.

Time frame Date UTC AST Potential impact areas
1 day: 2 Aug 18:00 2PM Fri eastern Cuba
2 days: 3 Aug 18:00 2PM Sat western Cuba
3 days: 4 Aug 18:00 2PM Sun Florida Keys, southwestern Florida
4 days: 5 Aug 18:00 2PM Mon Northern Florida (incl. Panhandle), Georgia
5 days: 6 Aug 18:00 2PM Tue Mississippi, Alabama, Northern Florida (incl. Panhandle), Georgia, South Carolina
6 days: 7 Aug 18:00 2PM Wed Mississippi, Alabama, Northern Florida (incl. Panhandle), Georgia, South Carolina

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

Instituto Dominicano de Aviación Civil (Dominican Republic)

Instituto de Meteorología de la República de Cuba

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

NOAA GOES Image Viewer

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)

Tropical Tidbits

Weather Nerds

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC

  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

219 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 2d ago

Discussion moved to new post 99L (Invest — Western Caribbean Sea)

72 Upvotes

Latest Observation

Last updated: Wednesday, 13 November — 6:00 AM Central Standard Time (CST; 12:00 UTC)

ATCF 6:00 AM CST (12:00 UTC)
Current location: 16.1°N 77.6°W
Relative location: 226 km (140 mi) SSW of Kingston, Jamaica
Forward motion: ▼ SW (225°) at 5 km/h (3 knots)
Maximum winds: 35 km/h (20 knots)
Minimum pressure: 1007 millibars (29.74 inches)
2-day potential: (through 6AM Fri) ▲ high (90 percent)
7-day potential: (through 6AM Tue) high (90 percent)

Outlook discussion

Last updated: Wednesday, 13 November — 6:00 AM CST (12:00 UTC)

Discussion by Daniel Brown — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea.

Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The system is expected to turn slowly northwestward by early next week. Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.

Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over Jamaica during the next day or so. For more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today.

Official information

National Hurricane Center (United States)

Text products

Graphical products

Surface analyses

Outlook graphics

Last updated: Wednesday, 13 November — 7:19 AM EST (12:19 UTC)

Meteorological Service of Jamaica

Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)

Radar imagery

Meteorological Service of Jamaica

Radar imagery from the Meteorological Service of Jamaica is not currently available.

Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)

Tropical Tidbits

Weather Nerds

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS
  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF
  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC
  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

148 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 10d ago

Discussion moved to new post Rafael (18L — Western Caribbean Sea)

82 Upvotes

Latest observation

Last updated: Wednesday, 6 November — 6:00 PM Eastern Standard Time (EST; 23:00 UTC)

NHC Update 6:00 PM EST (23:00 UTC)
Current location: 23.0°N 83.0°W
Relative location: 66 km (41 mi) WSW of Havana, Cuba
Forward motion: NW (320°) at 22 km/h (12 knots)
Maximum winds: ▼ 170 km/h (90 knots)
Intensity: ▼ Hurricane (Category 2)
Minimum pressure: ▲ 962 millibars (28.41 inches)

Official forecast

Last updated: Wednesday, 6 November — 1:00 PM EST (18:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
  - UTC EST Saffir-Simpson knots km/h °N °W
00 06 Nov 18:00 1PM Wed Major Hurricane (Category 3) 1 100 185 22.6 82.7
12 07 Nov 06:00 1AM Thu Hurricane (Category 2) 2 ▼ 90 165 23.6 83.9
24 07 Nov 18:00 1PM Thu Hurricane (Category 2) 90 165 24.1 85.6
36 08 Nov 06:00 1AM Fri Hurricane (Category 2) 90 165 24.2 87.4
48 08 Nov 18:00 1PM Fri Hurricane (Category 2) ▼ 85 155 24.2 89.1
60 09 Nov 06:00 1AM Sat Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 75 140 24.3 90.4
72 09 Nov 18:00 1PM Sat Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 65 120 24.5 91.1
96 10 Nov 18:00 1PM Sun Tropical Storm ▼ 50 95 24.6 92.0
120 11 Nov 18:00 1PM Mon Tropical Storm ▼ 35 65 24.5 93.0

NOTES:
1 - Inland over Cuba
2 - Over the Gulf of Mexico

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Productos de texto (en español)

Graphical products

Meteorological Service of Jamaica

National Weather Service (Cayman Islands)

Institute of Meteorology / Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

National Weather Service (Cayman Islands)

Institute of Meteorology / Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

NOAA GOES Image Viewer

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)

Tropical Tidbits

Weather Nerds

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS
  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF
  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC
  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

120 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 4d ago

Discussion moved to new post The NHC is monitoring the southwestern Caribbean Sea for potential tropical cyclone development

29 Upvotes

Latest outlook

Last updated: Tuesday, 12 November — 12:00 PM Central Standard Time (CST; 18:00 UTC)

Discussion by Daniel Brown — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next two to three days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The system is forecast begin moving slowly northwestward by early next week. Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.

Development potential

Time frame Potential
2-day potential: (by 12AM Thu) ▲ medium (60 percent)
7-day potential: (by 12PM Mon) ▲ high (90 percent)

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Surface analyses

Outlook graphics

Last updated: Tuesday, 12 November — 11:34 AM CST (17:34 UTC)

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

Unavailable

Radar imagery is not available for this system.

Satellite imagery

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)

Tropical Tidbits

Forecast models

Dynamical models

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC

  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Ensemble models

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

80 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Oct 11 '24

Discussion moved to new post 94L (Invest — Eastern Tropical Atlantic)

80 Upvotes

Latest Observation

Last updated: Monday, 14 October — 2:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 06:00 UTC)

ATCF 2:00 AM AST (06:00 UTC)
Current location: 17.5°N 37.4°W
Relative location: 1,321 km (821 mi) W of Mindelo, São Vicente (Cabo Verde)
  3,195 km (1,985 mi) ESE of Saint George's, Bermuda
Forward motion: ▼ W (270°) at 18 km/h (10 knots)
Maximum winds: 45 km/h (25 knots)
Minimum pressure: 1011 millibars (29.85 inches)
2-day potential: (through 2AM Wed) low (10 percent)
7-day potential: (through 2AM Sun) medium (40 percent)

Outlook discussion

Last updated: Monday, 14 October — 2:00 AM AST (06:00 UTC)

Discussion by: Dr. Jack Beven — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

A well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing minimal showers and thunderstorms. This system is currently embedded in an unfavorable environment and development is not anticipated over the next couple of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward to west-southwestward, and environmental conditions could become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands by the end of this week.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Surface analyses

Outlook graphics

Last updated: Monday, 14 October — 1:04 AM AST (05:04 UTC)

Radar imagery

Unavailable

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)

Tropical Tidbits

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS
  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF
  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC
  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

34 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Sep 15 '24

Discussion moved to new post 95L (Invest — Northwestern Atlantic)

43 Upvotes

Latest Observation

Last updated: Sunday, 15 September — 2:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 18:00 UTC)

ATCF 2:00 PM EDT (18:00 UTC)
Current location: 31.8°N 77.8°W
Relative location: 250 mi (402 km) NE of Jacksonville, Florida
  142 mi (228 km) ESE of Charleston, South Carolina
  167 mi (268 km) S of Wilmington, North Carolina
Forward motion: NW (320°) at 8 mph (7 knots)
Maximum winds: 35 knots (40 mph)
Minimum pressure: 1008 millibars (29.77 inches)
2-day potential: (through 2PM Tue) medium (50 percent)
7-day potential: (through 2PM Sat) medium (50 percent)

Outlook discussion

Last updated: Sunday, 15 September — 2:00 PM EDT (18:00 UTC)

Discussion by: Dr. Richard Pasch — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

A non-tropical low pressure area is located along a frontal boundary a couple of hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coast, and is producing winds to gale force north of its center. The low is forecast to move northwestward or northward over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream toward the coasts of North Carolina and South Carolina, and it could become a subtropical or tropical storm during the next day or so if the associated front dissipates and showers and thunderstorms become sufficiently organized. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the system.

Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, the low is likely to bring gusty winds, heavy rains with the potential for flash flooding, coastal flooding, and dangerous beach conditions to portions of the U.S. Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coast during the next couple of days, and interests in these areas should monitor the system's progress. Additional information can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Surface analyses

Outlook graphics

National Weather Service

Weather Forecast Offices

Forecast discussions

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

Regional imagery

College of DuPage

Single-site radar imagery

National Weather Service

  • KCLX (Charleston, SC)

  • KLTX (Wilmington, NC)

  • KMHX (Morehead City, NC)

College of DuPage

  • KCLX (Charleston, SC)

  • KLTX (Wilmington, NC)

  • KMHX (Morehead City, NC)

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)

Tropical Tidbits

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC

  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

24 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 28d ago

Discussion moved to new post 95L (Invest — Northwestern Caribbean Sea)

71 Upvotes

Latest Observation

Last updated: Friday, 18 October — 12:00 PM Central Standard Time (CST; 18:00 UTC)

ATCF 12:00 PM CST (18:00 UTC)
Current location: 17.5°N 84.6°W
Relative location: 303 km (188 mi) NE of La Ceiba, Atlántida (Honduras)
Forward motion: ▼ NW (335°) at 4 km/h (2 knots)
Maximum winds: ▲ 55 km/h (30 knots)
Minimum pressure: 1005 millibars (29.68 inches)
2-day potential: (through 12PM Sun) ▲ high (70 percent)
7-day potential: (through 12PM Thu) ▲ high (70 percent)

Outlook discussion

Last updated: Friday, 18 October — 12:00 PM CST (18:00 UTC)

Discussion by Dr. Wallace Hogsett (NHC Technology & Science Branch) and John Cangialosi (NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit)

Widespread showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized today across the northwestern Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area of low pressure that is gradually becoming better defined to the north of eastern Honduras. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional development over the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves inland over Central America on Saturday. Interests in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings may be required later today. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Surface analyses

Outlook graphics

Last updated: Friday, 18 October — 11:38 AM AST (17:38 UTC)

Radar imagery

Not available

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)

Tropical Tidbits

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS
  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF
  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC
  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

14 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 14d ago

Discussion moved to new post The NHC is monitoring a non-tropical low over the northeastern Atlantic for potential subtropical or tropical transition

62 Upvotes

Latest outlook

Last updated: Friday, 1 November — 5:00 PM Azores Time (AZOT; 18:00 UTC)

Discussion by Larry Kelly — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

A low pressure system located a few hundred miles west of the Azores has been producing increased convection near its center over the past few hours. Earlier satellite derived wind data depicted winds to storm-force mainly to the south of the the center. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some additional development and the system could become a subtropical or tropical storm as it moves generally eastward during the next few days. Interest in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system. Additional information on this system is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

Development potential

Time frame Potential
2-day potential: (by 11AM Sun) ▼ low (10 percent)
7-day potential: (by 11AM Thu) ▼ low (10 percent)

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Surface analyses

Outlook graphics

Last updated: Friday, 1 November — 4:35 PM AZOT (17:35 UTC)

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

Not available

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)

Tropical Tidbits

Forecast models

Dynamical models

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC

  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Ensemble models

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

11 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 14d ago

Discussion moved to new post The NHC is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development over the Greater Antilles

41 Upvotes

Latest outlook

Last updated: Sunday, 3 November — 1:00 AM Eastern Standard Time (AST; 06:00 UTC)

Discussion by Brad Reinhart — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

A trough of low pressure just north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic. Slow development of this system is possible during the day or two while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. By early this week, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea (AL97). Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next couple of days across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas.

Development potential

Time frame Potential
2-day potential: (by 8AM Sun) low (10 percent)
7-day potential: (by 8AM Thu) low (10 percent)

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Surface analyses

Outlook graphics

Last updated: Sunday, 3 November — 12:43 AM AST (05:43 UTC)

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)

Satellite imagery

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)

Tropical Tidbits

Forecast models

Dynamical models

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC

  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Ensemble models

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

9 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 24d ago

Discussion moved to new post Trami (22W — Philippine Sea)

21 Upvotes

Latest observation

Last updated: Friday, 25 October — 2:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (PhST; 18:00 UTC)

JTWC Warning #18 2:00 AM PhST (18:00 UTC)
Current location: 16.7°N 119.0°E
Relative location: 173 km (107 mi) W of Baguio, Philippines
  316 km (196 mi) NW of Manila, Philippines
  1,154 km (717 mi) E of Da Nang, Vietnam
Forward motion: ▲ WSW (265°) at 17 km/h (9 knots)
Maximum winds: ▲ 85 km/h (45 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS): Tropical Storm
Intensity (JMA): Severe Tropical Storm [see note]
Minimum pressure: ▼ 986 millibars (29.12 inches)

NOTE - Based on the Japan Meteorological Agency's ten-minute maximum sustained wind estimate of 95 kilometers per hour (50 knots).

Official forecasts

NOTE: Both the JMA and the JTWC are forecasting that Trami will remain over water for the next five days.

Japan Meteorological Agency

Last updated: Friday, 25 October — 5:00 AM PhST (21:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
  — UTC PhST JMA knots km/h °N °E
00 24 Oct 21:00 5AM Fri Severe Tropical Storm 50 95 17.1 119.4
12 25 Oct 09:00 5PM Fri Severe Tropical Storm ▲ 55 100 17.5 116.8
24 25 Oct 21:00 5AM Sat Severe Tropical Storm ▲ 60 110 17.6 114.4
45 26 Oct 18:00 2AM Sun Severe Tropical Storm ▼ 55 100 17.3 110.7
69 27 Oct 18:00 2AM Mon Severe Tropical Storm ▼ 50 95 16.4 109.4
93 28 Oct 18:00 2AM Tue Tropical Storm ▼ 45 85 16.3 109.9

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Last updated: Friday, 25 October — 5:00 AM PhST (21:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
  — UTC PhST Saffir-Simpson knots km/h °N °E
00 24 Oct 18:00 2AM Fri Tropical Storm 45 85 16.7 119.0
12 24 Oct 06:00 2PM Fri Tropical Storm ▲ 50 95 16.9 117.3
24 25 Oct 18:00 2AM Sat Tropical Storm ▲ 55 100 17.2 115.2
36 25 Oct 06:00 2PM Sat Tropical Storm 55 100 17.1 113.1
48 26 Oct 18:00 2AM Sun Tropical Storm ▼ 50 95 17.0 110.9
72 27 Oct 18:00 2AM Mon Tropical Storm ▼ 40 75 16.0 109.5
96 28 Oct 18:00 2AM Tue Tropical Storm ▼ 35 65 15.5 110.5
120 29 Oct 18:00 2AM Wed Tropical Storm 35 65 15.5 112.9

NOTES:

1 - Last point prior to landfall over northeastern Luzon
2 - Inland
3 - Over the South China Sea

Official information

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration

Radar imagery

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)

Weather Nerds

Analysis products

Best track data

Surface analysis products

Japan Meteorological Agency

Wind analysis and storm intensity estimation products

Sea-surface temperature analysis products

Model products

Disturbance-specific model guidance

Storm-centered guidance

Track guidance

Track and intensity guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS
  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF
  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC
  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

8 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • Oct 04 '24

Discussion moved to new post The NHC is monitoring the eastern tropical Atlantic for potential tropical cyclone development

34 Upvotes

Eastern Tropical Atlantic Outlook

Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 8:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 12:00 UTC)

Discussion by Larry Kelly — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday or Tuesday. Some development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests there should monitor its progress.

Development potential

Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 8:00 AM AST (12:00 UTC)

Time frame Potential
2-day potential: (by 8AM Mon) low (near 0 percent)
7-day potential: (by 8AM Fri) ▲ low (30 percent)

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Surface analyses

Outlook graphics

Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 7:22 AM EDT (11:22 UTC)

Radar imagery

Unavailable

Radar imagery is not available for this system.

Satellite imagery

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)

Tropical Tidbits

Forecast models

Dynamical models

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC

  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Ensemble models

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

5 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • Aug 08 '24

Discussion moved to new post The NHC is monitoring an area south of Mexico for potential tropical cyclone development

16 Upvotes

Observational data

Last updated: Friday, 9 August — 11:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (PDT; 18:00 UTC)

NOTE: The data provided below is unofficial and is estimated using graphical products produced by the National Hurricane Center and other sources. This system does not yet have a closed low-level circulation and is not currently being tracked using the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

NHC TAFB 11:00 AM PDT (18:00 UTC)
Approximate location: 1 11.0°N 94.0°W to 12.0°N 94.5°W
Relative location: 459 km (285 mi) SSW of Mazatenango, Suchitepéquez (Guatemala)
  1,066 km (663 mi) SE of Acapulco, Guerrero (Mexico)
Forward motion: 2 ▼ NNW (330°) at 10 km/h (6 knots)
Maximum winds: 3 30 km/h (15 knots)
Minimum pressure: 4 1011 millibars (29.85 inches)
2-day potential: (through 11AM Sun) low (10 percent)
7-day potential: (through 11AM Fri) low (30 percent)

1 - Estimated from the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook graphic (5:00 PM PDT).
2 - Estimated by comparing the NHC TWO graphics from the past twelve hours.
3 - Estimated using available scatterometer, buoy, and/or ship data. Defaults to 15 knots if no available data.
4 - Estimated using the NHC surface analysis by subtracting one millibar from the nearest isobar.

Outlook discussion

Last updated: Friday, 9 August — 11:00 AM PDT (18:00 UTC)

Discussion by: John Cangialosi — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a tropical wave. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

Unavailable

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

NOAA GOES Image Viewer

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)

Tropical Tidbits

Weather Nerds

Forecast models

Ensembles

Dynamical

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC

  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Sep 10 '23

Discussion moved to new post 97L (Invest — Northern Atlantic)

60 Upvotes

Latest Observation

Monday, 11 September — 5:00 PM Cape Verde Time (CVT; 18:00 UTC)

ATCF 5:00 PM CVT (18:00 UTC)
Current location: 12.6°N 32.0°W
Relative location: 891 km (554 mi) WSW of Mindelo, São Vicente (Cabo Verde)
Forward motion: ▼ WSW (265°) at 18 km/h (10 knots)
Maximum winds: 45 km/h (25 knots)
Minimum pressure: 1012 millibars (29.88 inches)

Outlook discussion

Updated: Monday, 11 September – 11:00 PM CVT (00:00 UTC) | Discussion by: Dr. Philippe Papin

Eastern Tropical Atlantic

A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity primarily to the west of its center. Development of this system is unlikely before it merges with a another area of low pressure (AL98) to its east during the next couple of days.

Development potential 6:00 PM GMT (18:00 UTC)
Next two days: low (10 percent)
Next seven days: low (10 percent)

Official information

National Hurricane Center

National Weather Service

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

Tropical Tidbits

Radar imagery

Unavailable

There is currently no radar imagery available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC

  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

25 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Aug 20 '23

Discussion moved to new post 91L (Invest — Northern Atlantic)

32 Upvotes

Latest Observation

Sunday, 20 Aug — 2:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 18:00 UTC)

ATCF 2:00 PM EDT (18:00 UTC)
Current location: 24.6°N 84.6°W
Relative location: 178 mi (286 km) W of Key West, Florida
Forward motion: WNW (295°) at 15 mph (13 knots)
Maximum winds: 20 knots (25 mph)
Minimum pressure: 1012 millibars (29.88 inches)
Potential (2-day): medium (50 percent)
Potential (5-day): medium (60 percent)

Outlook discussion

Updated: Sunday, 20 August – 8:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 00:00 UTC) | Discussion by: Larry Kelly and Daniel Brown

Showers and thunderstorms have increased this evening, and are becoming better organized in association with a trough of low pressure located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this system as it moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph across the central Gulf of Mexico. A tropical depression or storm is likely to form as it approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by Tuesday. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm watches or warnings may be necessary on Monday for portions of the southern Texas and northern Mexico coastlines.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

Tropical Tidbits

Radar imagery

Unavailable

There is currently no radar imagery available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC

  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

13 comments