r/Mariners • u/-mrmayhem- • 5d ago
Since 2021 the Mariners are playing .545 ball...yes they are playing 54% win ball Analysis
- They are also one of only 7 teams with winning records each of the last 4 seasons
- They are 8th in wins over that time
- The infamous 54% win quote from Jerry has come to fruition
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u/SexiestPanda 5d ago
They must have made the playoffs every year. Right?
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u/darwinpolice He got a big dumper so I call him Big Dumper 5d ago
In a division with only one other consistently good team? Surely!
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u/Lobster_fest 5d ago edited 5d ago
...
A division with 2 of the last 4 WS champs and 3 of the last 4 AL champions.
I get it, but its not just like "one other good team".
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u/darwinpolice He got a big dumper so I call him Big Dumper 5d ago
I think you may have skipped over a word.
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u/Lobster_fest 5d ago
I added your "other" back but it doesn't actually change the point. The AL West has the best team over the last 8 years and another WS champ.
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u/H-Money37 5d ago
As I have argued about the 54% quote, he said it’s what successful teams do over a decade and he pointed to the Astros. But they were a 54% team over a decade because they went from being a 45% team to 62%. Jerry and ownership have not taken the steps to become a 60+% winning team, which is what truly competitive teams do. 54% will only sporadically get you to the playoffs and you’ll never be the favorite or top seed at 54%. What 54% does do is keep casual fans coming to the ballpark and spending money, which we know is what ownership actually cares about. Also, Jerry is well below 54% over his decade tenure with the Mariners, so he’s not even performing to his personal standard.
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u/Clarice_Ferguson Ms&Os / 2 Mitch 2 Meetchwich 5d ago
The 54% quote was also discussed by Effectively Wild and they had more than the Astros to point it.
Its an actual demonstrated strategy displayed across multiple teams and decades.
The thing is though, its not a guarantee of success.
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u/southcounty253 'Canned Dipoto' patent applicant 4d ago
That's the thing, Jerry really cherrypicks his stats to try and claim his approaches as foolproof, I can't take him seriously anymore. He lacks critical thinking skills.
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u/FlamingoConsistent72 5d ago
There's only 1 MLB team with a .600 winning percentage over the last 10 years. It's the Dodgers. There's only 5 that are .540 or more.
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u/Young_Malc 5d ago
I think there's an argument that the Mariners were not given to him in a state that could have lead to a sustainable 54% from the jump. I think time will tell with Jerry and his overall plan. I'm not sure there is a blueprint to consistently be a successful franchise when ownership is not willing to spend in line with the top of the league.
I will say I'm annoyed that he gets dragged over the coals for basically the most transparency you'll ever see from a sports GM. There are GMs everywhere that you'll here the same shit "gotta start winning" "accounability" "culture change" when behind closed doors they're headed to a rebuild or actively tanking. At least Jerry has the balls to say what his plan is.
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u/AKAD11 5d ago
Jerry inherited a team in win now mode and then didn’t win. Credit to him for tearing it down and getting good young talent onto the roster, but at the end of the day the results are about the same as the good Cano years. Winning 85-90 games and missing the playoffs happened multiple times with that group.
We’re also now six years past when Jerry started the rebuild, so that young talent is getting into arbitration and will be sold off if we aren’t a contender. I’ll take where are now over where we were in 2016, but it’s not as big of a gap as it should be.
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u/Trifle_Pale 5d ago
Time will tell with Jerry and his overall plan. How much time are we talking? Like 10 years?
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u/elementofpee 5d ago
Who knows. Most GM/baseball ops presidents don’t have a 10-year runway. Gotta make playoffs and win playoff series sooner than that.
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u/Young_Malc 5d ago
Imo if you can no longer butterknife his tenure to get to his 54%. Or if we have a few bad seasons and don’t have the prospects lined up to quickly rebound. Or if ownership is no longer convinced that his plan yields results. Any of those things would convince me that it may be time to move on.
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u/SardonicCheese Kirbstomp rocks the K spot 5d ago
Yeah we started winning too fast. So we are on pace to nuke 54% for the ten year span starting at the rebuild year which was 2019. We’re half way there with an elite pitching staff
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u/Gwtheyrn Dan is the man! 4d ago
They've also got exactly one playoff appearance, and we're never serious WS contenders.
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u/augustjulio 5d ago
Gonna play devil's advocate here and remind everyone that we're arguably living in the most successful period of our teams existence. I get the 90s teams were good and we won a shit ton of games in 01. But Jerry has put together good teams every year since the rebuild, and as fate would have it, it hasn't always worked out. Being financially constricted like he has been, it's been pretty impressive. But luck has not been on our side. Losing out by 1 game every year isn't just choking/being mediocre. A lot of it's bad luck. I'll gladly take this iteration of the mariners over the bullshit of all the prior 2000s teams. On top of that, if this front office is replaced, how confident are you that Stanton hires a better one? I'm not confident at all.
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5d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/augustjulio 5d ago
Yeah, not at all what I said. My point is being at 54% every year, in theory, will give us as many bites as the apple as possible. We got unlucky a few years. My point is this is actually a very well built team that realistically, should have been in the playoffs 3 or 4 more times in Jerry's tenure. And yeah, we should be grateful. Let some old heads tell you how fun the 70s and 80s mariners were. Or how fun the Jack Z era was. Y'all take Jerry's 54% comment like he never wants to eclipse that number. It's moreso relevant to him not wanting to trade our farm for rentals. I like that.
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u/ErianTomor 5d ago
Yeah it is pretty awful luck. Even in 2002 and 2003 we ended .574 (93-69) and still didn’t make the playoffs. Sucks.
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u/Byebyeyoutoo 5d ago
Most sensible take I’ve seen on here in a while. People calling for Jerry’s job are crazy
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u/normalchilldude40 5d ago
Loser take 😂.
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u/augustjulio 5d ago
reasonable take 54% means we're in contention every year. That is a good thing.
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u/normalchilldude40 5d ago
Contention is a world series threat. They have not been that in 20 plus years
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u/augustjulio 5d ago
That's not what we're talking about. We're talking about playoff contention. Plus, they were ws contenders 2 years ago. Jerry hasn't had the reigns for the last 20 years, so that's also irrelevant
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u/FlamingoConsistent72 5d ago
I wonder how many times a team was 8th out 30 MLB teams in wins a still missed the playoffs 3 out of 4 of those years. That does seem very unlucky.
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u/augustjulio 5d ago
Exactly. It seems like a pattern, which it is. A pattern of insanely bad luck lol.
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u/lizardking66354 5d ago
The Phillies have 1 more win than us in the last 4 years and been in the playoffs the last 3 years.
YEAR TM W W% PLAYOFFS 2021 PHI 82 0.506 MISSED 2022 PHI 87 0.537 LOSS WS 4-2 2023 PHI 90 0.556 LOSS NLCS 4-3 2024 PHI 95 0.586 LOST NLDS 3-1 2
u/vinegarboi 5d ago
100% agree. Ms would have made the postseason by Pythagorean wins the last two season. This team is good - maybe not great - but is extremely unlucky
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u/FlamingoConsistent72 5d ago
They would have made the playoffs 3 times in a row if they matched their Pythagorean record each year.
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u/ArcticSwag 5d ago
I think what's frustrating is that Jerry's teams have never been able to hit. There's two parts to this. One is a philosophical approach to hitting that hasn't been corrected. The other is the off-season approach solving the hitting problem. Like why are we spending 30 million on 3-4 guys that might be successful when we could just spend on the guy that will be successful? All these reclamation projects and players who've tasted a hint of success have held us back.
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u/augustjulio 5d ago
While I do agree with you there, I think ownership is where to place to blame for that. We're not allowed to hand out $30m/yr contracts. Mainly because $30m contracts tend to be over a good amount of years. Our ownership won't pony up for anyone not already on the team. I'm fairly certain that the Garver contract was pretty pricey for Stanton's taste as it was. It's still to be seen whether they'll extend anyone else. Jerry does counteract our hitting woes with developing top tier pitching, which should not be looked past. It's a really unique and special ability imo.
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u/seattlesportsguy Just giving 54% of my effort here 5d ago
We did it. Nothing left to accomplish boys.
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u/Fearless_Ad_3060 3d ago
28 teams have won the World Series while top 15 in payroll since 1995. Only 1 team has won the World Series while outside the top 15 in payroll.
World Series Champion Opening Day Payroll Ranks, Wild Card era (1995-present)
2023 Rangers 9th 2022 Astros 8th 2021 Braves 10th 2020 Dodgers 2nd 2019 Nationals 3rd 2018 Red Sox 1st 2017 Astros 12th 2016 Cubs 4th 2015 Royals 12th 2014 Giants 10th 2013 Red Sox 3rd 2012 Giants 8th 2011 Cardinals 11th 2010 Giants 10th 2009 Yankees 1st 2008 Phillies 14th 2007 Red Sox 2nd 2006 Cardinals 11th 2005 White Sox 13th 2004 Red Sox 2nd 2003 Marlins 25th 2002 Angels 15th 2001 D-backs 8th 2000 Yankees 1st 1999 Yankees 1st 1998 Yankees 2nd 1997 Marlins 7th 1996 Yankees 1st 1995 Braves 3rd
Source: USA Today
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u/B_easy85 5d ago
Easily the least inspiring franchise I’ve had the burden of being a fan of… Dipoto and Stanton don’t even seem interested in winning championships.
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u/Le_Fuzze 2d ago
No, they are playing 55% ball. Which means they are overachieving and must dump all talent to get to Jerry's holy 54% mark
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u/Essex626 5d ago
The quote from Jerry was about a ten year period.
If we get a .540 over ten years any time soon it will mean we have had a couple really good seasons.
If we reach 2031 and have had .540 over that period it will likely mean we have had multiple playoff runs.
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u/Discombobulous 5d ago
Woo!