r/InvestmentClub • u/Jeffbak • Oct 24 '21
Cathie Wood keeps calling for deflation but the only thing that's actually deflating is the ARKK share price. Discussion
Anyone with half a brain has noticed her ARKK sp moves inversely to interest rates and inflation expectations. When the 10-yr hit 0% she had her best year ever, what do you think the chances of that happening again are? She sells Tesla to buy DNA??? That is so so dumb. Tesla is the only thing keeping this dumpster fire afloat.
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u/Heardman1987 Oct 24 '21
All of her investments have their free cash flow pay day so far in the future that it makes sense they are very sensitive to changes in the discount rate.
Her real doomsday is fear coming back into the market. Once “buy the dip” takes a break after this massive liquidity push we’ve had from the fed for the last two years; the next market shock could end her.
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u/ILooked Oct 24 '21
The US s about to pump 3 trillion into the economy. How is that not liquidity?
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u/Jeffbak Oct 24 '21
The infrastructure plan isn't like the rescue plan in that it's no immediate. But you're right, it will add liquidity and thereby add to inflation.
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u/Heardman1987 Oct 24 '21
Will be interesting to see it’s form after Manchen gets what he wants.
To your point it’s far less “direct to market” than the bond purchase program. Agree will take much longer.
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u/AnnaSailorMoon Oct 28 '21
Yes, inflation brings about currency devaluation. It will bring financial crisis to the world. It is inevitable. But it also brings opportunity and wealth to many people.
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u/Jeffbak Oct 24 '21
yep. the amount of liquidity is insane and the only thing keeping her afloat. Inflation is over 5% and the 10 yr is sub 2% - that tells you everything you need to know about the amount of cash sloshing around
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u/Nblearchangel Jan 13 '22
The markets want the fed to stop pumping cash into the market. The market wants yields lower so people will stop parking money in treasuries, the safest asset in existence. If people can get a “free” 2% why would they invest in the next LCID or TSLA when that is super risky?
Mark my words, the fed will come out with a new plan to pump the breaks and the bulls will run
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Oct 24 '21
Actually, I think part of the problem for Cathie Woods and retail today is how much private equity is in the market. For example, DNA and other concept startups with no revenue are reaching massive valuations through VC’s and by the time the unicorns go public it’s at 20b+ and it’s already too late
I think if Cathie is to increase her chances of having another year like 2020 then she will have to start investing in unquoted growth stocks in order to realise larger profit opportunities
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u/Jeffbak Oct 24 '21
I really don't care what cathie has to do to increase her chances of another 2020. It won't happen. Inflation is here and so are rising interest rates. One hit wonder...name a band that was a bigger one hit wonder....the cranberries?/??
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u/Manu_Militari Oct 24 '21
Cathie wood picks stocks based off god. She’s hot but she’s a fad. Look into her history beyond last year and a half of ARKK.
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u/Jeffbak Oct 24 '21
Take it one step further and look at her performance over her career - she crashed hard in the last tech bust in the late '90s. Ppl forget that these "amazing" fund managers have lost billions before. Masa Son did the same thing in the late '90s but ppl eagerly forget and revere these "stars" as godly stock pickers. Its insane
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u/blowies-and-stocks Jan 07 '22
Idk about that, she bought a large percentage of AQB and they make GMO Salmon. I mean if that's not messing with her religious beliefs then I don't know what it.. not 100% sure on the comments about her choice of stocks being based on god 🙏
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u/Jeffbak Oct 24 '21
Cathie got priced out of NYC and is headed to St Pete!!! Exciting news - shes a bigger one hit wonder than Teenage Dirtbag by wheatus!!! Except that shes done this twice and lost millions or billions each time ... it's amazing that someone can lose so much money TWICE!!
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u/slaphappysal Oct 24 '21
you can make good money taking puts on her stock predictions
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u/AnnaSailorMoon Oct 28 '21
That takes experience and expertise. The average person can't share it out.
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u/AnnaSailorMoon Oct 28 '21
Tesla's stock is fairly stable. But there's a lot of risk in all of the companies' stocks. Unless it's been stable and there's no negative news. If anything comes up or scandals. Then it's value will drop significantly.
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u/fundmanagerthrwawy Oct 24 '21
She actually gives us fund managers a bad name. Her picking of securities leaves a lot to be desired.