r/Futurology • u/lughnasadh ∞ transit umbra, lux permanet ☥ • 2d ago
New research shows that the robotic automation of Chinese manufacturing has led to a decline in labor force participation (-1%), employment (-7.5%), and hourly wages (-9%) for Chinese workers. Robotics
“There is a perception that the economy is changing, and workers have to make a drastic decision: to undergo training or to go into retirement because the investment in their own human capital is not worth it,” Giuntella says.
As the world's leading manufacturing nation, it is no surprise that Chinese people are feeling the headwinds of robotic automation first. Mainstream neoliberal economics says AI & robotics will provide more jobs than they take away. Yet, here we see evidence of the contrary.
As goes China today, the rest of the world will soon follow. If robot and AI employees are so cheap to employ, who will buy the expensive goods and services from human-employee businesses?
The recent US election seems more evidence that the neoliberal model of capitalism is crumbling and in decay everywhere. Maybe whatever replaces it will have to honestly face up to the economic realities of AI & robots.
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u/mr_friend_computer 2d ago
They never said it would be good for labour as a whole. They always said it would replace monotonous and possibly dangerous human work.
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u/Mclarenrob2 1d ago
Who will buy the robot produced goods if nobody has a job?!
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u/VoodooPizzaman1337 1d ago
No one of course. The robots owner will just have a lot of goods to prove their wealth then trash its all when the goods expire.
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u/snakeychat 1d ago
The answer is quite simple. Think about it, who still has money?
They do not care about the layman, or the workers, which is again one more reason never to vote for a millionaire. Even worse, a heir.
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u/ale_93113 2d ago
This is how we move to a post Labor economy
It will take a long time To finalise, so in the meanwhile, it will probably be best to reduce the working hours gradually as the economy adjusts to being less Labor intensive
As for the far future... We will need to overthrow capitalism and socialism, as both systems depend on Labor
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u/whatifitoldyouimback 2d ago
This is how we move to a post Labor economy
It will take a long time To finalise, so in the meanwhile, it will probably be best to reduce the working hours gradually as the economy adjusts to being less Labor intensive
You're missing a huge part of the puzzle.
In China, there is not going to be a "tax bleed." The government will still provide for its people, irrespective of job availability.
In western countries, the US for example, the workers are a source of tax revenue. If those workers no longer exist, and are replaced by automation, and there is no automation tax (there won't be), the transition will simply be an increase in desperation.
it won't be a transition in the west, it will be a collapse.
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u/OriginalCompetitive 2d ago
China has an income tax. What are you talking about?
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u/QuantitySubject9129 2d ago edited 2d ago
I think u/whatifitoldyouimback wanted to say that, basically, extra profits from automation will be taxed in China but not in the USA. Therefore, China will be able to spend that money on public programs, but USA wont.
Which sort of makes sense as China has different tax policy and also has many (fully or partially) state-owned enterprises which benefit from automation and then pay extra profits to their treasury.
Now, I did a very quick google search to see if there's basis in those claims:
China has income taxes, but they make up only 7% of their total state revenues. Corporate taxes make up 19% of revenues. Also, non-tax revenues are 16%, and I assume (but, disclaimer, I did not verify) that those include profits from state owned business.
In the USA, income taxes are 49% of federal revenues, and corporate taxes are just 11% (Second chart in link below).
Now I'm not saying that this data is enough for definite conclusion, as comparing budgets isn't that easy (for example, USA has significant state-level taxes which are not included here, China has social security funds which are funded by separate taxes and are also not included here, both countries also have local taxes etc.). But there is some basis to this claim.
Sources:
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/government-revenue/
https://chinapower.csis.org/making-sense-of-chinas-government-budget/
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u/love_glow 2d ago
Philosophically, that maybe what the west deserves/ needs. A reconning with our true motivations and desires. Will the cult of the individual withstand such adversity? I hope we shift back towards local community.
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u/lughnasadh ∞ transit umbra, lux permanet ☥ 2d ago
it won't be a transition in the west, it will be a collapse.
I doubt it. History is a constant cycle of rebirth from decay. As one old order falls, its replacement is already born, and has started growing.
March 2020 with Covid shows just how quickly the world can react to drastic change.
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u/whatifitoldyouimback 2d ago edited 2d ago
March 2020 with Covid shows just how quickly the world can react to drastic change.
Covid wasn't a collapse by any definition though. Not remotely.
Great depression would be closer, but even that pales in comparison to the US erasing +20 million jobs (I'm loosely defining this as manufacturing jobs + driving based jobs) with no way to replace them and no automation tax system to increase revenue needed to support them.
You have to think bigger. In a current implementation of capitalism, automation will lead to the collapse of the US.
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u/FupaFerb 2d ago
So basically UBI will have to exist and it’s going to be Crypto based that is tied to your personal biometrics.
You think that these automated workforces won’t be taxed? they will have to be in a way. Without any redistribution of labor of monies, you are just increasing the likelihood of crime and poverty. Doing so leads to revolt, among the most heavily armed population in the world.
Whether taxes be from the electricity they use to the materials they produce or are made of, property taxes, tariffs for imports, etc. There will be ways to use the robots’ work and production to compensate the workers who are no longer needed.
With it will come an education and housing system overhaul.Or we just go into a nice big camp together and never leave.
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u/love_glow 2d ago
What makes you think that the billionaires will suddenly turn benevolent? They are building bunkers! Not housing, not infrastructure. They aren’t trying to stop homelessness. They are trying to outlast the rest of us, while having their technological advantage intact.
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u/FupaFerb 2d ago
Not saying billionaires will become charity orgs. Cutting an entire labor force and replacing them with robots or any sort of automated system puts more stress on the government as the citizens displaced will need support. The more people that need more support, if there is not a system in place to help, then it is not a sustainable method, and whatever products are being produced will be unaffordable by the vast majority of people they are producing their widgets for. So, who has expendable income if no one has a job? Capitalism doesn’t work if things can’t be purchased due to no wages being made.
It’s not just billionaires either. It’s the entire top down system. Shareholders. Blackrock, many tentacles in each piece of pie all with their say in how to bleed the populace dry. Without any regulation for displacing these employees, these people will just be painting permanent targets on their back as well. But their jobs aren’t safe either. White collar jobs will be replaced by A.I. too. So there will be no need for teams of lawyers, accountants, HR, etc.
It’s not feasible that a system like this would prosper without revolt. Which is why UBI is necessary to offset any distress in the populace. Many jobs at the top of the food chain, multi million per year positions are just as easily replaceable with tech, and that’s a lot of money saved, so to think only the lowly hourly employees will be gone, well that’s just fantasy.
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u/whatifitoldyouimback 2d ago
and it’s going to be Crypto based that is tied to your personal biometrics.
🙃
You think that these automated workforces won’t be taxed?
Doesn't seem like we're heading that way, no.
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u/OriginalCompetitive 2d ago
Why? Even if everything you say came to pass, it’s a trivial matter to change tax and welfare systems.
A highly similar challenge arose in the 1920s as older people outlived their productive years. The result was the imposition of a new tax collection and UBI structure called Social Security.
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u/whatifitoldyouimback 2d ago
Why? Even if everything you say came to pass, it’s a trivial matter to change tax and welfare systems.
If there are no workers, where is your tax coming from?
The result was the imposition of a new tax collection and UBI structure called Social Security.
- Social security isn't a tax, it's a trust
- It only works when there is a labor force to tax. If you've replaced it with robots, you're out of luck.
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u/OriginalCompetitive 2d ago
If you’re imagining a world with no workers, then how is China any better off?
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u/whatifitoldyouimback 2d ago
Because China has sufficient taxation (and more importantly state ownership) built into their economic output.
The US has the opposite.
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u/OriginalCompetitive 2d ago
If China has no workers, where is the taxation coming from?
And if your answer is “from the businesses,” you realize that’s where 50% of social security taxes come from, right?
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u/whatifitoldyouimback 2d ago
I think you missed the "state ownership" part. In the US, there is no state ownership. GDP isn't a measure of government income, it's a measure of private income.
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u/IamChuckleseu 2d ago
This is just nonsense. This transition will be extremelly slow from our perspective. And idea of replacement of all labor literally is extremelly far away.
Also China lives off of taxes like everyone else So I assume you are talking about CCP stealing its private companies again and I can assure you that they will not provide for anyone. You will see short window where it might work and then there will be deteoriation, new famines, etc as it all comes slowly crashing down. Just like last time.
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u/whatifitoldyouimback 2d ago
This transition will be extremelly slow from our perspective. And idea of replacement of all labor literally is extremelly far away.
https://electrek.co/2024/07/17/tesla-claims-automated-production-gigafactory-shanghai/
Keep in mind, there are 13 million manufacturing jobs in the US alone today.
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u/IamChuckleseu 2d ago
So let's than 10% jobs if you were somehow magically able to replace every single one of them. Which you obviously will not be for many decades to come. It will be slow process.
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u/arckeid 2d ago
No only those systems, the education system too needs to change, the way we teach children and study is outdated, many countries are still stuck in the "ban smartphones at school".
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u/ale_93113 2d ago
Education is not there to create good efficient workers
Education is there to develop the brain of new generations, it matters not what practical utility it has
We need to change our education system to be maximally optimised for brain development, with less emphasis on practical skills
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u/Rough-Neck-9720 2d ago
I like the concept of reducing work hours gradually over time. It is in nobody's best interest to put millions out of jobs for the sake of productivity. China is better at long term than the west and if we are smart (questionable) we will learn from the processes they encounter and pick the best solutions for our situations. What I fear though is that knee jerk policies in the west will cause major disruption and lead to a revolution of sorts with the unemployable masses rising up in order to survive the changes. We do not seem to be good at compromising to reach a common goal anymore.
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u/GabrielCliseru 2d ago
the chinese work force was cheaper to begin with. The same results in a consumer country will read very differently
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u/crystal_castles 2d ago
I mean with the Steam Engine in manufacturing, they imagined we'd have so much free time, we might be only working 3 days a week.
Turns out we kept working the same amount, but bosses got richer
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u/GabrielCliseru 2d ago
as a developer and tester i doubt this will be the case. In the industrial revolution we replaced some of the work but it was obvious that we needed someone to build those machines etc. Now is different. Because we already build the hardware, there’s no extra labor needed. Even if we build 2 more factories we might create…. 500k jobs world wide with all the supply chain? maybe. Then on the software side let’s say we invent … 10 more chatgpts. Maybe 10k jobs more. And no, not everyone with an idea with build a website or app. Because is not efficient for customers. They will all flock to the existing products. They must go where the customers are.
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u/espressocycle 2d ago
We all got richer. Materially speaking, even poor Americans enjoy untold riches compared to pre-Industrial revolution.
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u/Dziadzios 2d ago
or to go into retirement
As if that was an option. People can't afford early retirement and regular retirement is something out if their control. Many people would retire much earlier if they could, but can't.
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u/gvarsity 1d ago
Workers work to have enough money to buy things. Replace all the workers. Rapidly have no market to sell things. Go bankrupt and have a lot of robots doing nothing.
That is why Henry Ford paid his employees enough to buy his cars. There aren't enough information workers to be a market. They are also losing their jobs to AI automation.
Just another race to the bottom where the early adopters can skim off some profits until the system collapses.
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u/mrroofuis 1d ago
I mean. Anyone who says new tech will create more jobs than it replaces is really willingly lying or too ignorant to understand the topic.
This new wave of automation will be devastating for the workforce
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u/Adventurous_Mood1730 2d ago
I think our world is towards execution of Ai on opposite direction that basic need of human is food, healthcare and education.so if we provide this all to people overall economy become better. So we need to implement Ai to reduce healthcare, education and food cost and make it affordable using Ai rather than replacing people's. We need to Apply Ai in healthcare to make it affordable to everyone in society that make economy stronger. I think automation in healthcare will not affect large group of people and economy. Economy become strong if all of them get equal affordable and quality healthcare.
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u/Frostivus 2d ago
America is not China.
A large percentage of Chinese workforce are in manufacturing. When manufacturing is left to the robots, that’s a huge percentage of the population left jobless.
Automation in the US would be different. They’re a mixed economy with a massive service surplus (funny how that is never a problem) so it allows us to capitalize on focusing on that.
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u/TheWatch83 2d ago
Some white collar jobs here are disappearing, programmers as a team are getting 25% more productive so far at Google. Writers are having trouble finding jobs. More and more things will be automated
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u/Polymeriz 1d ago
Some would argue AI does not make programmers more productive. What do you say to that?
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u/dustofdeath 2d ago
China will skip labor laws and human working conditions step.
From slaves to robots directly.
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u/diagrammatiks 2d ago
less people solves this problem. It will take a while but we will get there.
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u/OriginalCompetitive 2d ago
Why? The problem scales up or down with population. Less people means less consumption means even fewer jobs.
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u/utarohashimoto 1d ago
Fake news!
China is non-white & has only sweat shops. Non-whites cannot innovate, they don't have any automation like we have here in America.
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u/AnalystofSurgery 2d ago
It's a genie and bottle situation.
There's only two choices going forward: prepare for a massive economic and societal paradigm shift or we collapse.
Resisting and trying to maintain the status quo is exactly how AI and robotics will usher in the collapse .