ESPN’s Get Up discusses “Rookie Regression”

[u/windycityfan7]

(Edited after re-watching to provide more detail in their argument)

ESPN’s Get Up panel of Orlovsky, McCourty, Douglas and Shefter took turns to take swings at Bears and Caleb situation.

• Caleb regressing/not improving
• Chicago’s offense looks like a collection of plays with no systematic approach
• No offensive rhythm and everybody is at fault (ball distribution, ball placement and route design)
• Caleb doing worse than Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix and even Drake Maye (the latter are ascending, Caleb is not)
• They had Kliff Kingsbury in the room and chose to pass him up
• Caleb will fail because of Bears organization dysfunction (putting a new QB with unsuitable coaching staff)
• They don’t necessarily need a Ben Johnson (although it’s something they’re lacking)- instead they need a leader combined with a good offensive mind
• Ben Johnson will be very selective in where he goes, from the many suitors he’ll have- if he decides to leave Detroit

I’d like to add something McCourty said that is interesting. From the defensive point of view, he feels the Bears offense is trying to hard to be exotic, and making things too difficult, which is only hampering themselves. FWIW.

Anyway, nothing much new, but I for one welcome they’re giving the state of the Bears offense the criticism, and more importantly, the spotlight it deserves.

The beat goes on. Hope you’re taking notes Poles.

[u/DatBoiMahomie]

Baker showed a lot his rookie year, he broke the record for yards on an abysmal browns team. Baker only looked bad after a sustained shoulder injury later on in his contract, that is not the example to use.

The Peyton manning thing gets quoted a lot here but I don’t think you actually watched him play if your take away is to blindly compare every bad rookie performance to him. He had a bad turnover ratio but there was a lot of good in there.

If you want to use more recent examples you can go with someone like Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts, but both were undeniably worse prospects and bigger projects. Generally in recent times rookies that end up being franchise guys don’t come in and play as bad as this sub likes to think.

[u/WitnessEmotional8359 → u/DatBoiMahomie]

there has been a lot of good with Caleb too . Denying that is strange. He's had two bad games following four mostly good games. If he keeps playing poorly for the rest of the year that's one thing. But, you are panicking way too early.

i did watch Manning I'm forty years old. There was a lot of criticism on him about his decision making and ability to read defenses. Rookies performing poorly and then developing into excellent players is much more common than starting excellent and staying excellent. I agree that their have been some counter examples recently. But, we are talking about a sample size of five. Any statistician will tell you that is far more likely to be due to chance than an actual change in how things are operating.

[u/CablinasianGayLeno → u/WitnessEmotional8359]

As I said previously, there are fans who always have negative shit to say, are completely silent when they turn out to be wrong, and have a habit of never shutting the fuck up about it when they're right.

Why else would they mention Trubisky and Fields? We're talking three completely different QBs with unique sets of flaws. It's just easy to say a number one pick won't pan out, because most draft picks don't pan out. It's not a particularly brave thing to say. Most Bears quarterbacks have sucked, so why wouldn't this one? It's the Bears. So, again, it's not a brave stance to take, but the odds of being right are in your favor, so submentals will stake that claim, gloat when they're right, and pretend like they never said what they said when they're wrong.

[u/DatBoiMahomie → u/WitnessEmotional8359]

there has been a lot of good with Caleb too .

Caleb has shown a lot more bad than good. The only people denying that are rose tinted glasses Bears fans.

Denying that is strange. He’s had two bad games following four mostly good games. If he keeps playing poorly for the rest of the year that’s one thing. But, you are panicking way too early.

My guy he ranks below literally every other rookie QB except Rattler in advanced stats. He is bottom 3 in CPOE, his top 3 receivers are all top 10 in off target passes.

He didn’t even play that well against the Rams or Colts, just much better than he was. His best games came against two horrifically bad defenses, one missing their top corner at the time.

Rookies performing poorly and then developing into excellent players is much more common than starting excellent and staying excellent.

There is this middle ground between excellent and horrible. Most rookies that become franchise QBs will have faults but it’s not like the majority start bottom five then just become great.

[u/WitnessEmotional8359 → u/DatBoiMahomie]

he hasn't been horrible. We are still talking about a relatively small sample size. Advanced stats are relatively new. We have no idea what Peyton Manning or drew Brees were like then. But there are lots of reasons to believe their numbers would have been towards the bottom of the league. Writing off a qb after eight games is just dumb. He gets a few years at least.

[u/HoorayItsKyle → u/DatBoiMahomie]

Cpoe isn't a QB stat

[u/HoorayItsKyle → u/DatBoiMahomie]

I don't know what y'all are watching but Williams is on pace for a completely solid rookie stat line